On Friday the 24th of November, trading on the euro closed up. The euro has gained 231 pips (+1.97%) against the dollar in the space of 4 days. The US dollar came under pressure after the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were published (22nd of November), as well as from weak US data and a decline in bond yields. The single currency has been bolstered by prospects of a more favourable outcome to the political crisis currently taking place in Germany as well as the positive German IFO report.
Day’s news (GMT+3):
- 11:15 Switzerland: employment level (Q3).
- 18:00 USA: new home sales (Oct).
Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView
After PPI data published in Germany and some announcements from the head of the IFO, the euro rally restarted with new strength after falling short of the trend line.
Dollar bulls were disappointed by US data. The manufacturing and services PMIs for November came out lower than expected.
After Thanksgiving Day, volumes on the currency market remained low, so euro bulls managed to bring the rate up to 1.1944. The euro’s growth slowed down around the U3 MA line.
In Asia, the euro crosses are trading up, meaning that the euro/dollar pair is not in decline. Taking this into account, buyers are trying to push the rate up to 1.20. I haven’t been making forecasts for a few days now as the situation is ambiguous; the euro is trading against cycles and historical patterns. When the situation is unclear to me like this, I prefer to stay on the sidelines.
Since the euro closed up on Friday, I’m expecting to see movements against Friday’s today. Since today’s economic calendar is empty, the price should make it to 1.1900.
At the current bar, the balance line runs through 1.1872, below the TR1 trend line. If buyers fail to defend the TR1, we can expect the euro to drop to 1.1889 (45 degrees). Once the price reaches 1.1889, we need to keep an eye on trading volume and US bond yields. Should bond yields rise, the correction could continue to the 67th degree at 1.1862.